FAU/Mainstreet Poll: Harris and Trump in Statistical Tie

Voters preparing to cast their ballots

By joshua glanzer | 7/30/2024

A new national survey by Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research USA reveals that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former U.S. President Donald Trump are in a statistical tie in a 2024 presidential election matchup. The poll also highlights complex views on democracy among American voters.

Harris and Trump are both at 46% among all voters in the latest Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab ( PolCom Lab ) and Mainstreet Research USA poll. Diving into key demographic groups reveals striking differences:

Harris holds a strong lead among women with 49% compared to Trump’s 42%
Among Black voters, Harris commands a significant advantage at 67%, while Trump trails at 22%
In the Hispanic demographic, Harris secures 54% support, leaving Trump with 37%.
Trump leads with 18 to 35-year-old voters, 45% to 36%
When Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is included, Harris has a 1% lead among all voters, which is within the margin of error

“While voters may be responding to the prospect of a new candidate in these results, they are also not sure what the Harris campaign messaging is,” said Luzmarina Garcia Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at FAU. “But the lead up to the election will clarify that picture.”

U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance: No Honeymoon Bounce from Voters

Trump’s vice president selection, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, has a polarized favorability rating among all voters according to the poll, with 23% viewing him “strongly favorably” and 34% “strongly unfavorably.” Trump sits at 33% strongly favorable and 16% somewhat favorable. Vance is most favored by white, non-college graduates and Trump supporters, while he faces significant dislike from Black voters, women and Harris supporters.

“Vance’s approval ratings are significantly trailing President Trump’s,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab. “It’s early, but instead of lifting the ticket, the selection of Vance as his vice president may be a drag on Trump’s reelection chances.”

Voters Signal Mixed Views on U.S. Democracy

The survey explored voters’ opinions on democracy in the United States. Overall, 67% of all voters reported being “very satisfied” (39%) or “somewhat satisfied” (28%) with how democracy functions in the U.S. Satisfaction levels were similar among demographic groups, with 66% of Black voters and 67% of Hispanic voters expressing satisfaction. When asked whether democracy is the best system of government, 58% of all voters “strongly agreed,” while 21% reported that they “somewhat agreed.”

Notably, there were significant differences across age groups, with 36% of voters aged 18 to 49 who “strongly agreed” that democracy is the best system compared to 75% of those aged 50 and older. Similarly, there is a significant gap between white college graduates and non-college graduates in their views on democracy: 73% of white college graduates “strongly agreed” that democracy is the best system, compared to 56% of white non-college graduates.

“These results reveal a complex picture of Americans’ views on democracy,” said Dukhong Kim, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU. “While a majority express satisfaction with the democratic system, there’s a clear generational divide in the strength of belief in democracy as the best form of government. This could have significant implications for the future of American politics and governance.”

Emotions Running High; So Is Happiness (For Some)

The poll assessed life satisfaction among all voters, revealing that 67% reported being “very happy” or “quite happy” with their current lives. Although in line with historical trends, happiness has been represented by a U-shaped curve, with youngest and oldest adults the happiest with a dip in happiness during mid-life. Older voters (65+) are significantly happier (73%) than other age groups, including 18 to 35-year-olds (65%). By demographic categories, happiness varied:

Black voters (75%)
White, college-educated (71%)
White, non-college educated (64%)
Hispanic voters (63%)

The biggest difference in happiness is evident in political affiliation and intended 2024 votes:

80% of Democratic voters report being happy
- 80% of voters who intend to vote for Harris report being happy
61% of Republicans voters report being happy
- 57% percent of voters with an intention to vote for Trump report being happy

This poll also reveals a complex emotional landscape regarding Biden dropping out of the presidential race and Harris being the presumptive nominee with 47% of voters reporting positive emotions, such as joy, pride and excitement when thinking about this change in party leadership, and 32% of voters expressing negative emotions like fear, sadness and anger when they considered the change.

Among Democrats, 72% felt positively with excitement being the predominant emotion, compared to 17% who felt negatively. Conversely, 20% of Republican voters said they felt positive emotion when thinking about the shift at the top of the Democratic ticket, with 53% reporting negative feelings; with fear being the most prevalent emotion (32%).

“As the data show, emotions play a pivotal role in shaping voter behavior and engagement,” said Carol Bishop Mills, Ph.D., professor of communication and co-director of the PolCom Lab. “The significant positive sentiment among Democrats and minority voters toward Harris’ candidacy reverses some feelings of frustration and disconnectedness with Biden’s candidacy, while the heightened negative emotions among Republicans highlight the polarized nature of the current political climate. Understanding these emotional undercurrents is essential for developing effective, nuanced campaign strategies as we approach the 2024 election.”

The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted Friday, July 26 and Saturday, July 27, among a sample of 997 registered voters living in the U.S. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish via interactive voice response and an online panel, representing the U.S. voting population. Weights were applied for gender, race, education and past vote. Party identification was determined by asking respondents which party they most identify with, as some states do not have voter registration by party. While the online component means a precise margin of error cannot be assigned, a poll of this size typically has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level, with higher margins for subsamples. The survey provides insights into current voter attitudes and preferences in late July, contributing to understanding the political landscape ahead of upcoming elections. For full methodologies, visit www.faupolling.com/about . For the poll’s full report, visit www.faupolling.com/polls .

-FAU-

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