FAU/Mainstreet Poll Shows Small Trump Bump Post-Assassination Attempt
A new poll of the battleground states of Georgia and Virginia highlights current voter leanings that were examined immediately before and after the attempted assassination of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
A new poll of the battleground states of Georgia and Virginia conducted by Florida Atlantic University’s Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research USA highlights current voter leanings that were examined immediately before and after the attempted assassination of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Biden Maintains Narrow Lead in Virginia, Georgia Leans Trump
In Virginia, the race continues to be competitive with U.S. President Joe Biden leading by five points (47% to 42%). Biden’s lead is based on his strength with women voters and older voters. With the addition of Robert Kennedy Jr., the lead narrows to three points (42% to 39%) with Kennedy drawing about 11% of the vote. In Georgia, Trump continues to lead among likely voters 49% to 43%. The addition of Robert Kennedy, Jr. does little to change the race with Trump maintaining his six-point lead (46% to 40%).
“Both candidates appear to be consolidating their support in their party,” said Luzmarina Garcia, Ph.D., political science assistant professor at FAU. “But at this point it seems like Republicans are uniting behind Trump a bit faster than Biden, especially in Georgia.”
Post-Assassination Attempt: Trump’s Lead Grows with Independents
Following the attempt on Trump’s life, the poll results moved in his direction in Virginia. Among likely voters in Virginia, the race pulled into a tie (44% to 44%). Some of this movement was caused by the number of Democrats who moved to undecided (9%) or to Trump (9%) in the aftermath. In Georgia, Trump’s lead over Biden remained largely unchanged.
“On the whole, there does seem to be some evidence of movement toward Trump in the post-incident numbers,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab and professor of political science. “I would still be cautious about making any long-term predictions for now. Those numbers likely reflect some response bias and reflect a relatively smaller sample that is likely much more volatile.”
No Real Change with Harris Leading the Democratic Ticket
Replacing Biden with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket showed little impact in both states. In Virginia, Harris would have a similar narrow lead over Trump of about three points, while Trump would maintain a six-point lead in Georgia.
“There is not much evidence yet that a move to Harris would change the dynamics of this race, but it is probably a bit early to know,” Garcia said.
As with Biden, Harris appears to lose some ground with voters in Virginia after the attempt on Trump’s life, with the Georgia race a bit more static.
Awareness of Project 2025
Project 2025 is a comprehensive plan developed by conservative think tanks, led by the Heritage Foundation, that outlines a strategy that could be implemented should a Republican win the presidency and take office in 2025. More than 60% of voters in both Virginia and Georgia reported that they are already aware of Project 2025, with most voters opposing or are strongly opposing the plan, while Democrats, white, college-educated voters, and Black voters have the largest concerns over Hispanic and white, non-college-educated voters. A majority of women and voters aged 50 and older are also opposed to the plan.
“These results demonstrate that a large majority have heard of Project 2025,” Garcia said. “Moreover, minorities, women, older voters and Democrats oppose it. Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025. This is perhaps because many segments of the population recognize this project as unfavorable.”
The poll was conducted with registered voters in Virginia and Georgia. It was conducted from July 12 to 15, using interactive voice response and an online panel. The survey sampled 918 registered voters in Virginia and 981 in Georgia, all aged 18 and older. It aimed to represent the voting populations of both states, with weights applied for gender, race, education and past voting behavior. Party identification was determined by asking respondents which party they most identify with. Due to the online component, a precise margin of error cannot be calculated. However, polls of this size would typically have margins of error of +/- 3.9% pre and +/- 5.6% post-shooting for Virginia and +/- 3.6% pre and +/- 5.9% post-shooting for Georgia at a 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher for subsamples in both states. The survey provides insights into current voter attitudes and preferences in Virginia and Georgia as of mid-July 2024, contributing to understanding the political landscape in these states ahead of upcoming elections. For full methodologies, visit www.faupolling.com/about.
-FAU-
Tags: research | arts and letters